Disaster Probability Tracker

Live situational awareness from open feeds — refreshed while you're here. Never part of the statistics.

Connecting to live feeds…

Major events — last 21 days drag the globe · click a ping or a row · auto-rotates when idle

What qualifies as major (thresholds, not vibes): earthquakes M ≥ 5.9 — 193/yr globally from this site's own catalog, one every ~1.9 days (~11 in a 21-day window); anything smaller would bury the map in noise. Cyclones, floods, volcanoes, wildfires, droughts and landslides at GDACS orange or red alert — GDACS's alert score is calibrated to expected humanitarian impact (greens excluded) — plus tropical storms at hurricane strength (≥ 64 kt, NASA EONET) with precise positions. If GDACS is unreachable, ReliefWeb's current-disaster list fills in, pinned at the affected country's centroid. Duplicate reports of the same event across sources are merged. See METHODOLOGY § 12b.

Live pulse

Checking global seismicity…
Checking disaster alerts…

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