One single disaster event of at least this size.
Scrub forward to widen the window and watch cumulative probability grow.
Where the risk comes from
Probability vs. time
Frequency–severity
Season how the combined event rate moves through the year
Qualifying events
Read this before quoting a number
About the model
Data. EM-DAT, the international disaster database (CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels — emdat.be), public table including historical events, snapshot 2024-03-26; 13,571 physical natural-hazard events 1900→2024 after aggregating per-country records and excluding epidemics. Used under EM-DAT's non-commercial terms with attribution.
Model. Event occurrences above an impact threshold are a superposition of per-hazard Poisson processes. Rates are empirical counts inside per-threshold completeness windows (larger disasters are reliably recorded further back: ≥10,000 deaths from 1900, ≥1,000 from 1930, ≥100 from 1990, ≥10 from 2000), with exact Poisson confidence intervals. Sub-annual windows apply a per-hazard monthly climatology (hurricane season is real). Damage uses EM-DAT's CPI-adjusted series.
Full methodology, citations, and limitations: METHODOLOGY.md. The earthquake deep-dive runs on the instrumental seismic catalog (195k events, live USGS top-up) and supports any point on Earth.